Subject: FROM A MILITARY HISTORIAN

This was written by an academic advisor at the Air Force Academy {Dr.

Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) Former Director of Military History, USAF

Academy}

Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of

military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an

"open letter to Americans."

Dear friends and fellow Americans:

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's

attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from

surprise.

As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have

a different perspective and I think you should hear it.

This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,

politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the

media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not

committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as

such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a

ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong

way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect

their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the

Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a

brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we

may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we

think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with

the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II. These men hate the

United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the

power of

their moral commitment.

Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and

statesman, stated "the moral is to the physical as three is to one."

Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral

conviction was five times more important in battle than physical strength.

Our enemies are willing - better said anxious -- to give their lives for

their cause. How committed are we America? And for how long? In addition

to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a

mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most

military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise.

When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at

our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a

random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military

competence to

be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good

portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A. These men

will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear

them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's

only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight.

As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us

for the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or

seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much

better

than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"

organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield

seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We

will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are

any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.

Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already

deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living

the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with

a

search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public

must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be

worked out. For the most part, our military is still in the process of

redefining

itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were

promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and

tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers

of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological

edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive.

Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the

terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife

fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens

and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with

our

military leaders. Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time

behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it.

They plan

to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the

American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to

believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is

generally

acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only

look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap

(also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America

without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who

marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and

spat

upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that

Osama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the

concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent

attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging

from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power

distribution

facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone"

forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually

eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it.

It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is

the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon

which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,

and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The

Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read

military theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of

war"

that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership

of

the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the

field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the

crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate

enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon.

The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it

will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more

hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we

will

eventually prevail. Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has

shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I

could

do something!"

You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to

support your President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we

fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.

God Bless America

Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)

Former Director of Military History,

USAF Academy

Please forward this to everyone you know. I hope you agree that the

message s very clear and must be understood by every citizen of this

country. God

Bless America